September 9, 2008

BOULDER—This year is proving unusually active for Atlantic storms.
The hurricane season is only at its midpoint, but already there have
been 10 named storms—which is the average number for an entire year.
Five consecutive storms have made landfall in the United States, and
Hurricane Ike may break the record as the sixth in a row.



Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and its managing
organization, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), closely
study tropical storms, hurricanes, typhoons, and other cyclones (the
term varies depending on strength and geography, but refers to the same type
of storm). The scientists use advanced computer models and draw on a wide range
of observations to study the early development of cyclones, track the intense
storms, and even predict major impacts before landfall.

Hurricane experts are available
to explain

• whether global climate change is augmenting hurricane strength and what the future may hold;
• what may cause a hurricane to spin up initially, gain or lose intensity, or veer on a new course;
• how hurricanes can affect weather over large areas as they move poleward
  and decay;
• how even weak tropical storms and hurricanes can lead to devastating floods;
• how the public interprets and uses hurricane warnings.

Hurricane Experts at NCAR & UCAR

Hurricane formation, intensity, and motion

Christopher Davis,
NCAR Scientist

303-497-8990

Davis studies the weather systems that lead to hurricanes, thunderstorms,
and other heavy rainfall events. He uses observations and sophisticated
computer models to analyze the evolution of these systems. Recently
Davis has focused on the role of weak nontropical disturbances in fostering
the development of some tropical storms and hurricanes, as well as
the ways in which tropical cyclones evolve into midlatitude storms.

Wen-Chau Lee,
NCAR Scientist

303-497-8814

Lee is a specialist in hurricane winds and intensity. This year the
National Hurricane Center has adopted a technique called VORTRAC, developed
by Lee and colleagues, that uses Doppler radar to detect rapid changes
in the intensity of landfalling hurricanes. Lee is also the chief scientist
for NCAR's ELDORA, an airborne Doppler radar, which captures detailed
images of precipitation and winds from hurricanes and severe thunderstorms.

Climate change, global warming

Greg Holland,
Director, NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division

303-497-8949

Holland, a specialist in tropical meteorology and severe weather, is
one of the world's leading experts on the possible link between global
warming and greater tropical cyclone activity. He was lead author of
a 2007
paper showing that Atlantic hurricane activity has increased
significantly since 1900, as have sea-surface temperatures. Holland
also studies the locally severe winds, torrential rains, and other
effects produced as tropical cyclones move inland.

Kevin Trenberth,
NCAR Scientist

303-497-1318

An expert on El Niño and the water cycle, Trenberth has been
in the forefront of scientists examining the question of whether climate
change, including global warming, is affecting the intensity of hurricanes
and other tropical cyclones. He wrote a noteworthy paper
in 2006 linking
global warming with higher sea-surface temperatures that can fuel hurricanes,
and has since published several papers on the energy and water cycles
in hurricanes.

Flooding

Matthew Kelsch,
UCAR Hydrometeorologist


303-497-8309

Kelsch specializes in weather events involving water, such as floods,
droughts, rain, hail, and snow. He has studied some of the biggest
U.S. flood events connected to hurricanes and tropical storms, and
he trains scientists from around the world on hydrology topics.

Societal Impacts

Rebecca Morss, NCAR Scientist

303-497-8172

Morss studies the ways in which people interpret and use weather- and
climate-related information, including the role of uncertainty and
how it is characterized in forecasts. Working with colleagues at Texas
A&M University, Morss oversaw a survey on how Gulf Coast residents
perceived and responded to warnings of Hurricane Rita in 2005.

See all News