2 November 2010  •  China is now the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2025. A group of 19 graduate students explored these and other aspects of Asia’s future in a two-week August colloquium sponsored by NCAR’s Advanced Study Program and Integrated Science Program.

NCAR’s Steven Massie organized the meeting with NCAR colleague Elisabeth Holland and Rong Fu (University of Texas at Austin). Along with hydrology, Himalayan ecosystems, and other aspects of Asian climate, the colloquium covered economic development, agriculture, political science, and renewable energy. One full day, led by NCAR’s Brian O’Neill, was devoted to integrated assessment models. According to Massie, “These models provide important insights on how it might be possible to get ‘from here to there,’ with ‘there’ being a more healthy global environment.”

While most of the students were raised in Asia, one of the American students spoke Chinese, while another does field work in India. “The diversity of experiences and cultural backgrounds among the students made for an interesting mix,” says Massie. Of the four closing presentations developed by student groups, each dealt with aerosols (airborne particles) in some form or fashion, from their impact on snow fields and air quality to the downstream influence of Gobi Desert dust.

India’s ability to feed its growing citizenry is another major concern. Raj Khosla (Colorado State University) summarized the history of Indian agriculture, which increasingly draws on the Ganges River water table. Satellite-based measurements analyzed by Sean Swenson (NCAR) suggest that regional groundwater is being depleted by as much as 10 centimeters (4 inches) per year. “If this trend is sustained, it will lead to a major water crisis in the region when this nonrenewable resource is exhausted,” he says.

Participants in the 2010 ASP colloquium on Asia's future. (Photo by Kathleen Barney, NCAR.)

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