A new study suggests that global warming will accelerate permafrost thawing and lead to an intensification of wildfires in the subarctic and arctic regions of northern Canada and Siberia.

The study, led by the Institute for Basic Science in South Korea and co-authored by a scientist at the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR), looks at permafrost and wildfire interactions in simulations run with the NSF NCAR–based Community Earth System Model 2.

Ice that’s frozen in permafrost soils acts like a plug in the bathtub, keeping surface soils relatively wet. But when permafrost thaws, it removes this ice plug and surface soils dry out. This further warms and dries both vegetation and the atmosphere, thereby creating conditions for more intense wildfires.

“It’s an intriguing and troubling cascade of changes that ends up driving this Earth system feedback,” said NSF NCAR scientist Will Wieder, a co-author and land modeling expert who helped interpret the computer simulation results.

For more about the study, see the Institute for Basic Science news release.

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